Modelling and Management of Risks Related to Decision Horizon Expansion

Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in Complex Systems: Proceedings of the Tenth International Scientific School MASR-2010 2010
Gaļina Kuļešova, Olegs Uzhga-Rebrovs

This paper focuses on possibilities of modelling additional risks related to deviations of outcome criteria estimates from the prior estimated values in cases when decision outcome realisation occurs with a significant delay with respect to decision making action. Situations like that are quite widespread in making strategic decisions intended for a long-term perspective. The paper discusses some approaches to obtaining relevant information and estimating additional risks as well as provides some techniques for managing this kind of risk.

Keywords
random events, decision outcome horizon, uncertainty of criteria estimates, forecast uncertainty, additional risk management

Kuļešova, G., Uzhga-Rebrovs, O. Modelling and Management of Risks Related to Decision Horizon Expansion. In: Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in Complex Systems: Proceedings of the Tenth International Scientific School MASR-2010, Russia, Saint Petersburg, 6-10 July, 2010. Saint Petersburg: SUAI, 2010, pp.97-102. ISBN 978-5-8088-0541-5.

Publication language
English (en)