In the modern world, the developed and the developing countries intensively use governmental borrowing policy both at internal and external financial markets. The problem of successful government debt management that takes into account economic crises could not be solved without finding an optimal strategy on the base of appropriate mathematic simulation. The goal of the present paper is to analyse accumulation of the government debt in Baltic States over the period of 1995-2011 and to make prognosis of the debt accumulation in the framework of the borrowing policy that persisted in these countries during the last decade. Three models of the government debt accumulation were considered: the two of Domar and the author’s proposed crisis model that takes into account periodical changes in the national income growth rate. The data pool for the research was extracted from Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia and Eurostat database. The results showed that the crisis model provides the most adequate description of the government debt growth in 1995 – 2011 and predicts a higher government debt to national income ratio and tax burden, required to pay interest on debt, then the alternative Domar’s models. For both Latvia and Lithuania, the tax burden may grow up to nearly 5% in 30 years, that may become intolerable for the economics, given the state borrowing policy will not change in comparison with 2008 – 2010, thus the state has to forecast for the crisis to avoid intensive borrowing at the crisis time to keep the tax burden low.