Structure of the National Debt, Credit Rating and State Financial Security
53rd International Riga Technical University Conference „Scientific Conference on Economics and Enterpreneurship” (SCEE’2012): Proceedings 2012
Nadežda Semjonova

One of the most important aspects of the state economic security is the condition of the financial system. Credit ratings are widely used tool for evaluation of financial stability. Those are assigned by number of international agencies and are based on analysis of numerous economical and financial indices. The question “in what extent credit ratings reflects financial independence of the state” is addressed in the present work. For the present research, the pool of 15 European countries and 23 countries from around the word was selected. The Standard and Poor’s ratings , related both to obligations in local and foreign currencies for the end of the year 2011 were quantified by means of the following point scale: AAA was equal to 9 2/3, AA+ was equal to 9 1/3 points, AA to 9 points ets. Quantified ratings were compared with the ratios of foreign de bt to the total government debt for all 38 countries, taken from the report of the Word Bank. There is slight, but statistically significant correlation between ratings and percentage of foreign debt: correlation coefficient is equal to-0.41, p= 0.01 for local currency rating and – 0.37, p= 0.02 or foreign currency rating. Besides, for EU countries only correlation coefficient for both ratings drops to – 0.29 and becomes statistically insignificant (p= 0.27), that may be, probably, explained ust by small sample size for EU countries. Regression analysis of the relation between S&P ratings and percentage of the foreign debt (PFD) gives for local currency rating statistically significant regression equation R= 8.4 – 2.8 PFD / 100 with the determination coefficient r2= 0.17 and for foreign currency rating R = 8.2 – 2.5 PFD / 100 with r2 = 0.13. Low determination coefficient indicates that PFD may contribute just to 13 – 17% to of the total variation of the S&P rating. Because of weak correlation between percent of the foreign debt and credit rating one may suspect the latter as insensitive indicator of the financial security of the country. Thus, one could recommend inclusion of the ratio between foreign and total governmental debt in the list of the state economic and financial parameters.


Keywords
Government debt, Sovereign rating, Financial security

Semjonova, N. Structure of the National Debt, Credit Rating and State Financial Security. In: 53rd International Riga Technical University Conference „Scientific Conference on Economics and Enterpreneurship” (SCEE’2012): Proceedings, Latvia, Rīga, 12-16 October, 2012. Riga: RTU, 2012, pp.1-6. ISBN 978-9934-10-355-1.

Publication language
Latvian (lv)
The Scientific Library of the Riga Technical University.
E-mail: uzzinas@rtu.lv; Phone: +371 28399196