Forecasting of Latvian Populaton and Employment (Using Econometric Models)
2006
Remigijs Počs, Velga Ozoliņa

The paper deals with the analysis of demographic situation in Latvia. It mentions the main factors influencing the decrease of population. It also reveals several hypotheses about the future dynamics of these factors. For the purpose of forecasting the model has been estimated, which takes into account the trends of natural increase of population and net migration. The paper presents demographic forecasts for 2006 – 2030 and comparison of these forecasts with other author’s prognoses. Using the forecasted number of population, prognoses of the number of population in the working age and economically active population have been made. The number of employed persons is obtained, using the elasticity coefficients of employment to value added in order to estimate employment depending on the development of different industries.


Keywords
iedzīvotāji, nodarbinātība, demogrāfiskās prognozes, ekonometriskie modeļi

Počs, R., Ozoliņa, V. Forecasting of Latvian Populaton and Employment (Using Econometric Models). Economy: Theory and Parctice. Vol.13, 2006, pp.87-96. ISSN 1407-7337.

Publication language
Latvian (lv)
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