Technology of Operative Automated Prediction of Flood during the Spring Floods
Труды СПИИРАН 2013
Vyacheslav Zelentsov, Jūlija Petuhova, Semyon Potryasaev, Sergey Rogachev

Flood is one of the natural disasters which cause immense human and social tragedies as well as costly economic losses. An efficient flood forecasting and monitoring system may improve significantly public safety and mitigate economical damages caused by inundations. There are two types of issues related to flood management: flood monitoring and inundation forecasting. For solving the first issue, the application of satellite monitoring increases as it allows detecting river overflow and calculating flood damage based on the data obtained by satellite images. To deal with the issue of possible flood zone forecasting the development of special purpose flood forecasting systems is necessary which includes the following subsystems as information collection, information-simulation, visualization, and dissemination of results. To get a holistic view of the modelled object, the above mentioned system should be based on the heterogeneous data integration, received from both space and ground-based sensors. Developed by the paper’s authors, the prototype of the simulation system for flood forecasting was used to obtain inundation zone forecasting in a city Daugavpils (Latvia) in April 2013. First, input data were collected and, a digital elevation model was obtained by means of airborne laser scanning of the investigated area, performed by a specialized company. According to archival optical range space images, hydrological characteristics of the river channel were obtained. Based on an agreement with the hydrological observation station in Daugavpils, operative data receiving of the water level in the river Daugava became possible by means of on-line web service. By application of the symbolic regression method and genetic programming, a service for converting water level into water flow measured in m3/s was done. As the result, the distributed simulation system for flood forecasting, based on collected data, allows generating forecast of inundation zones hourly and presenting results automatically at the developed a geo-portal prototype for informing of end users. Operational verification of the model was performed in two steps: by using image received from the satellite Radarsat-1 and by using crowdsourcing technology – photos or video materials downloaded by the social active residents of the region on a free-will basis through a created web service. Performed real time experiment allows achieving about 90% of confidence regarding to the significant objects, which were actually inundated. The high forecast precision is achieved through the constant updating of input parameters and adequate horizon of the forecast.


Hyperlink
http://www.mathnet.ru/php/archive.phtml?wshow=paper&jrnid=trspy&paperid=668&option_lang=rus

Zelentsov, V., Petuhova, J., Potryasaev, S., Rogachev, S. Technology of Operative Automated Prediction of Flood during the Spring Floods. Труды СПИИРАН, 2013, No. 29, pp.40-57. ISSN 2078-9181. e-ISSN 2078-9599.

Publication language
Russian (ru)
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