Urban policies requires a deep knowledge about the dynamics that can affect the acceptability of the investments by the population, considering not only the present context but also the different future scenarios that can emerge. In this paper, an agent based simulation model to evaluate the impact of different urban bicycle infrastructure investments is described as an excellent tool to mitigate the risk in the decision making process. It is well accepted that a critical factor to extend the use of bicycle in a city for mobility purposes is to achieve a minimum amount of citizens satisfied with the bicycle infrastructures, which will act as a seed to extend the use of bicycles by influencing their communities. Thus, the main idea is to prioritize those investments that can contribute to achieve the critical mass of urban cyclists.