Using Adverse Event Pyramids to Assess Probabilities in Airline Safety Management

Transactions on Aerospace Research 2021
Aleksandrs Bitiņš, Juris Maklakovs, Ruta Bogdane, Rafal Chatys, Vladimirs Šestakovs

This article reviews the methods of safety management using Heinrich’s and Bird’s pyramids. The presence of a causal relationship between pyramid levels, as a result of inconsistencies in the activities of an organization and personnel, lead to incidents, and incidents in turn lead to accidents. The existence of such a relationship makes it possible to predict the risk of “top-level” events by reducing risks at the middle and lower levels. A mathematical description of the development process of an undesired aviation event is presented, which makes it possible to evaluate the probability of the successful (or unsuccessful) completion of a transportation task. Also given is an analysis of the development of an aviation accident, based on the example of the crash of a Lufthansa A-320 aircraft on 14 September 1993 at the airport of Warsaw (Poland) while landing in adverse weather conditions

Keywords
Airline safety management, risk analysis
DOI
10.2478/tar-2021-0012
Hyperlink
https://sciendo.com/article/10.2478/tar-2021-0012

Bitiņš, A., Maklakovs, J., Bogdane, R., Chatys, R., Šestakovs, V. Using Adverse Event Pyramids to Assess Probabilities in Airline Safety Management. Transactions on Aerospace Research, 2021, No. 2, pp. 71-83. e-ISSN 2545-2835. Available from: doi:10.2478/tar-2021-0012

Publication language
English (en)