Future Development Scenarios of the Latvian Power System

2020
VPP Enerģētika projekts FutureProof

The report D1.2 identifies the main parameters and assumptions necessary for modelling the future development scenarios of the Latvian power system, and also details the modelling methods to be used during the project implementation. There are two main chapters in the report. The first chapter details the formulation of power system planning as an optimization task. It provides an overview of the specifics of power system planning, its goals and objectives. It also provides background on some of the underlying principles of modelling exercises, such as, handling of multi-criteria objectives, state and decision variables, game theoretic approaches, decision-making at varied time horizons, constraints etc. The purpose of this chapter is informing the reader on the capabilities and limitations inherent in modelling-based scenario assessments. The second chapter details two complementary modelling approaches to be used during the project. One of them is the open-source mixed-integer linear programming modelling environment Backbone (developed by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and their partners), which allows simulating various interconnected energy systems using basic model building blocks like grids, nodes, lines and units. The other modelling framework to be used is the Regional Power System Model (RPSM), which is a set of interconnected tools and submodels developed at RTU Institute of Power Engineering (IPE). Finally, at the end of the second chapter, the main modelling parameters and future assumptions for scenario building are outlined. For instance, full Baltic power system desynchronization from IPS/UPS by 2025; majority of electricity trading in the region still taking place in the day-ahead market also in the future; no new developments of high-emission power plants; major electrification push (especially in transport) counteracting energy efficiency measures, thus leading to an overall growth in electricity demand; increased RES capacities; maintenance of existing natural gas infrastructure, but plausible reduction of its use in power production by 2050 etc. The purpose of the initially defined scenarios is modelling approach testing and assessment of result adequacy. Consequently, the scenarios and their underlying assumptions are expected to evolve in an iterative process during the project, finalizing by the end of WP1.

Keywords
enerģētika; energosistēma; modelēšana; optimizācija; scenāriji

Latvijas elektroenerģijas sistēmas nākotnes attīstības scenāriji: Valsts pētījumu programma “Enerģētika”, projekts “FutureProof” VPP-EM-INFRA-2018/1-0005. Rīga: Rīgas Tehniskās universitāte, 2020. 29 p.

Publication language
Latvian (lv)