Energy Supply Infrastructure Future Efficiency and Optimization

2021
VPP Enerģētika projekts INGRIDO, Antans Sauļus Sauhats, Roberts Lazdiņš, Jana Teremranova, Līga Kurevska, Romāns Petričenko, Ļubova Petričenko

The final project deliverable builds on the previous reports and publications, as well as novel work performed during the last stages of the project and the findings of other concurrent national research projects. The main focus of it lies in establishing guidelines for the development of efficient energy supply infrastructure in the future in general, as well as based on select particular case studies on actions and policy decisions which can aid in achieving the goal. The report has two chapters, the second of which is divided in five main subchapters. The first chapter provides a detailed overview of the main factors and future development objectives driving the evolution of both Latvian and, more generally, Baltic power system. It views the power system development as a decomposed multi-step optimization problem and describes the main steps of the resulting decision-making algorithm. The second chapter starts with a forecast of the future investments in the distribution network in Latvia, basing it on Eurelectric projections. It follows with modelling-based case studies. Firstly, the benefits from wind and PV energy communities in regards to the distribution grid are assessed, also considering the financial indicators of such developments. The modelling is performed on IEEE 123 Node Test Feeder. It is found that wind and PV energy communities produce comparable benefits with wind-based projects proving to be marginally more advantageous. This is at least partly driven by the input assumptions which are informed by the cost and production forecasts relating to the situation in Latvia. Secondly, the potential of Latvian household electrification and decarbonization is assessed, focusing on two promising pathways – replacing gas cooking stoves with electric alternatives (preferably the more effective induction stoves) and replacing internal combustion vehicles with electric vehicles. While gas stove replacement could provide major emission reductions, liquified oil gas stove (most of which are used in Latvian countryside) replacement is a costly endeavor for the end-user and, thereby, financial, regulatory or other incentivizing support mechanisms are advisable due to the generally lower financial options available to countryside population. Still, gas stove replacement is a more promising emission reduction action than transport electrification due to lesser capital costs and lower level of regulatory intervention necessary to fully implement it. In general, decarbonization strategy must include an overall strive towards electrification also including the transport sector, but the phasing-out of fossil fuel use within household appliances (both kitchen and heating devices) should be seen as a lower-hanging fruit and thus addressed primarily. Thirdly, the development of HVAC systems creates new options for energy supply efficiency improvements, especially in the form of smart-control enabled heat pumps that can be used in DR (both implicit and explicit). The deliverable contains an assessment of heat pump use for load-shifting. However, the takeaway from the respective case study is that implicit DR with heat pumps provides marginal benefits to the asset owners in the Latvian case. Since active development of DR is crucial for the successful widespread integration of intermittent RES, policymakers must strive to implement incentivizing measures for residential DR development, for instance, taking into account the system-wide benefits brought by load shifting. The fourth subchapter summarizes the benefits that could be accrued in the Latvian energy sector from proper implementation of energy community enabling regulations. From the end-user perspective these are smaller energy bills, improved social welfare, enabling lifestyle changes towards achieving climate neutrality. From the whole system perspective the main benefits are lower capacity requirements, improved energy independence through lower imported energy (electricity and gas) volumes, improved system security and export volumes. Finally, the last case study addresses one potential drawback of the transport electrification push – the uneven charging issue. The modelling approach utilized assumes a worst-case scenario in the future Baltic power system with decarbonized transport, exposing the consequences of inefficient charging strategies that might emerge in very rare circumstances. However, the risk of large consumption peaks from EV charging can be alleviated by imposing smart charging solutions.

Keywords
energoapgāde, infrastruktūra, optimizācija

Sauhats, A., Lazdiņš, R., Teremranova, J., Kurevska, L., Petričenko, R., Petričenko, Ļ. Energoapgādes infrastruktūras efektivitātes prognozes un optimizācija nākotnē: Valsts pētījumu programma “Enerģētika”, projekts “INGRIDO” VPP-EM-INFRA-2018/1-0006. Rīga: Rīgas Tehniskās universitāte, 2021. 40 p.

Publication language
Latvian (lv)