Long-Term Forecasts for the Energy System Planning
2020
VPP Enerģētika projekts FutureProof

The report D2.1 deals with forecasting models, approaches and software solutions for obtaining predictions necessary for the planning and control of the power system. The document is composed of four main chapters followed by conclusions. The first chapter provides an overview of the state of the Latvian power system, as well as on the historical development of various key parameters (demand, generation, prices etc.). Statistical data is a crucial tool in developing projections on the future parameters and development of the power system. The second chapter positions forecasting as an important process in the overall development planning methodology and provides an overview of various forecasting methods and algorithms (e.g. artificial neural networks, quantitative methods, composite predictions etc.), and their usage prerequisites. It also identifies the main processes the timeseries forecasts of which are necessary for the modelling efforts within FutureProof, as well as needed by policymakers for their planning process. The third chapter gives examples of some of the databases collated during FutureProof useful for future projection construction, and included as an appendix to the report. The data collected includes the consumption patterns of various types of consumers, solar irradiation, electricity prices, water inflow in HPP reservoirs, heating demand, ambient air temperature, wind speed etc. The fourth chapter provides long-term forecasts for a number of parameters, such as, electricity prices in various Nordic bidding zones, electricity production, fuel costs, consumption, RES penetration. The chapter also gives a brief overview of the implications that can be made from the forecasts.


Keywords
energosistēma; prognozēšana; stohastiskie procesi

FutureProof, V. Long-Term Forecasts for the Energy System Planning. Rīga: 2020. 47 p.

Publication language
Latvian (lv)
The Scientific Library of the Riga Technical University.
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