Short-Term Prediction of the Wind Speed Based on a Learning Process Control Algorithm in Isolated Power Systems
Sustainability 2023
Vadim Manusov, Pavel Matrenin, Muso Nazarov, Svetlana Beryozkina, Murodbek Safaraliev, Inga Zicmane, Anvari Ghulomzoda

Predicting the variability of wind energy resources at different time scales is extremely important for effective energy management. The need to obtain the most accurate forecast of wind speed due to its high degree of volatility is particularly acute since this can significantly improve the planning of wind energy production, reduce costs and improve the use of resources. In this study, a method for predicting the speed of wind flow in an isolated power system of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO), based on the use of a neural network with a learning process control algorithm, is proposed. Predicting is performed for four seasons of the year, based on hourly retrospective meteorological data of wind speed observations. The obtained wind speed average error forecasting ranged from 20–28% for a day ahead. The prediction results serve as a basis for optimizing the energy consumption of individual generating consumers to minimize their financial and technical costs. In addition, this study takes into account the possibility of exporting electricity to a neighboring country as an additional income line for the isolated GBAO power system during periods of excess energy from hydropower plants (March–September), which is a systematic vision of solving the problem of improving energy efficiency in the conditions of autonomous power supply.


Keywords
isolated power system; neural networks; prediction; wind speed
DOI
10.3390/su15021730
Hyperlink
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/2/1730

Manusov, V., Matrenin, P., Nazarov, M., Beryozkina, S., Safaraliev, M., Zicmane, I., Ghulomzoda, A. Short-Term Prediction of the Wind Speed Based on a Learning Process Control Algorithm in Isolated Power Systems. Sustainability, 2023, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp.1-12. ISSN 2071-1050. Available from: doi:10.3390/su15021730

Publication language
English (en)
The Scientific Library of the Riga Technical University.
E-mail: uzzinas@rtu.lv; Phone: +371 28399196