Balanced recovery is a key factor to ensure the sustainable economic performance in the post-crisis period. Two-speed recovery pattern is already observed. Three-speed recovery represents the most likely pattern of recovery in the majority of the EU countries in the post-COVID era due to the common dramatic decline in transport and tourism, relative minor impact on large part of essential manufacturing and services, moderate impact on other industries that adopted online and distant-working solutions. It is believed that air transport recovers quickly; minor increase can be foreseen in boomed courier and postal sector, and stability in other transport industries. The findings argue that urban areas are shocked more as modelled transportation sector’s development scenarios reveal faster recovery in urban (especially in metropolitan) regions compared to rural areas. Obtained results are valuable for policy makers and government for modifying the recovery plans to stimulate balanced recovery, reducing potential poverty risks and depressed regions.