Justification of Latvia’s Macroeconometric Model
2009
Velga Ozoliņa

The paper deals with the analysis of Latvia’s and other countries’ macroeconomic models and presentation of justification of Latvia’s macroeconometric model. It reveals the main aspects of application of macroeconomic models in Latvia, which indicates that complex analysis of dynamics and industrial structure of the national economy is conducted rarely and only in a few organisations with the help of macroeconomic models. The paper also analyses macroeconometric models elaborated in other countries from several aspects – theoretical justification, application, structure and size, as well as informative and software maintenance. Classification of models by their application is presented graphically. Basing on analysis of different models, justification and characterisation of Latvia’s macroeconometric model is shown in the paper – theoretical basis, potential application aims and directions, forecasting horizon, data frequency and model structure. In elaborated model Keynesian theory and demand factors dominate, model can be used both for forecasting and for scenario analysis, it can be used for elaboration of economic and fiscal policy, for analysis of industrial factors, demographical trends and energy issues. The paper reveals graphical representation of model sections and their interconnections. Also a short insight into the scope of current model calculations is described.


Keywords
makroekonometriskie modeļi, modeļu analīze, modeļu teorētiskais pamatojums, modeļu klasifikācija, modeļa raksturojums

Ozoliņa, V. Justification of Latvia’s Macroeconometric Model. Business and Management. Vol.18, 2009, pp.49-67. ISSN 1407-7337.

Publication language
Latvian (lv)
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