Forecasting Traffic Loads: Neural Networks vs. Linear Models
Computer Modelling and New Technologies 2010
Irina Kļevecka

The main aim of the research was to produce the short-term forecasts of traffic loads by means of neural networks (a multilayer perceptron) and traditional linear models such as autoregressive-integrated moving average models (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing. The traffic of a conventional telephone network as well as a packet-switched IP-network has been analysed. The experimental results prove that in most cases the differences in the quality of short-term forecasts produced by neural networks and linear models are not statistically significant. Therefore, under certain circumstances, the application of such complicated and time-consuming methods as neural networks to forecasting real traffic loads can be unreasonable.


Keywords
telecommunications, packet-switched networks, traffic forecasting, neural networks, ARIMA, exponential smoothing
Hyperlink
http://www.tsi.lv/sites/default/files/editor/science/Research_journals/Computer/2010/V2/14_2-2_klevecka.pdf

Kļevecka, I. Forecasting Traffic Loads: Neural Networks vs. Linear Models. Computer Modelling and New Technologies, 2010, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp.20-28. ISSN 1407-5806.

Publication language
English (en)
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