Forecasting Methods and Long-term Evaluation of the Electronic Communications Market in Latvia
Proceedings of the 6th International Conference “Reliability and Statistics in Transportation and Communication" 2006
Irina Kļevecka, Jānis Lelis

Electronic communications market is one of the most rapidly developing and prospective branches of the national economy. It directly influences economic and political situation of the country as well as the level of well-being of each citizen and the society on the whole. Already now it becomes obvious that the life cycle of many telecommunications technologies and services is rapidly decreasing. Besides, traditional telecommunications services are replaced by more advanced information services. Therefore, under the circumstances of constantly evolving market, it is very important to realize the possible ways and prerequisites for further development, their influence on private entrepreneurship, government policy of regulation and on the whole society. The above-mentioned targets can be partly reached by purposeful forecasting. The paper considers the most popular forecasting methods used to evaluate the development of electronic communications market –analogy method, Delphi method, logistic regression and trend extrapolation of the actual data. The authors carry out the calculations and quantitative forecasts for the prospective sectors of the Latvian telecommunications market – mobile telephony and Internet.


Keywords
Telecommunications, forecasting, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, analogy method

Kļevecka, I., Lelis, J. Forecasting Methods and Long-term Evaluation of the Electronic Communications Market in Latvia. In: Proceedings of the 6th International Conference “Reliability and Statistics in Transportation and Communication", Latvia, Rīga, 25-28 October, 2006. Rīga: Transport and Telecommunication Institute, 2006, pp.37-45. ISBN 9984-9865-9-4.

Publication language
English (en)
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