Dynamics of Urban Resilience to Natural Hazards
Maksims Feofilovs

28.12.2020. 14:00, Rīgas Tehniskās universitātes Elektrotehnikas un vides inženierzinātņu fakultātē, Āzenes ielā 12 k-1

Francesco Romagnoli

Gatis Bažbauers, Richard Haigh, Fausto Marincioni

The statistics of natural disasters, growing population and increasing urbanization rate is indicate a potential increase of disaster risk in urban areas. Research aiming to provide support to disaster risk reduction policies currently is of high importance. The question how to measure urban resilience to natural hazard is an actual problem in research and urban policy planning. A consistent support for assessing urban resilience and evaluating alternative policy strategies for strengthening resilience in required. The current methods applied for assessment of urban resilience are failing to capture the set of important aspects in one measurement. Multidimensionality, short-term and long-term perspective and different likelihoods of disaster occurrence are not captured yet in one single tool. Thus, the Doctoral Thesis aims at creating a novel tool for urban resilience to natural hazard assessment. Three methods ‒ composite indicator, probabilistic simulation, and system dynamics ‒ are applied in a local case study for resilience assessment. Case studies allow understanding the limitations and strengths of the methods. As a result, these methods are integrated into a single tool to overcome limitations of each method. The Doctoral Thesis has been written in English. It consists of an Introduction; 3 Main Chapters; Discussion, Conclusion and Recommendations; 53 figures; 8 tables and 7 publications in appendices; the total number of pages is 180. The Bibliography contains 160 titles. The introduction presents the aim of the Doctoral Thesis, the scientific and practical importance of the developed tool together with the scientific articles published on the topic of the Thesis. The approbated results are presented as a list of publications and presentation made at international scientific conferences. In addition, other publications of the author that are not in line with the Thesis are mentioned. The Doctoral Thesis is based on thematically unified seven scientific articles dedicated to case studies and development of the tool. With help of publications the developed knowledge within this Thesis is transferred to broader scientific community. The publications are published in international scientific journals and are indexed in international scientific databases. The Thesis itself consists of three main chapters. Chapter 1 of the Doctoral Thesis is a literature review on the current topicality of the research field, the terminological variety and epistemological disjunctions of the studied term “resilience” and methods used to measure resilience. Chapter 2 describes each step of methodology of the Doctoral Thesis, presenting the main steps performed in each of the separate studies made within thematic publications. Chapter 3 presents the achieved result. The focus of the chapter is the construct and application of the developed assessment tool of dynamic urban resilience to natural hazards. Finally, conclusions are given at the end of the Thesis resulting from the development and testing of the tool.

System dynamics; Natural disasters; Probabilistic assessment; Composite indicator; Monte Carlo

Feofilovs, Maksims. Dynamics of Urban Resilience to Natural Hazards. PhD Thesis. Rīga: [RTU], 2020. 179 p.

Publication language
English (en)
The Scientific Library of the Riga Technical University.
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