Decarbonisation of Transport through Electrification and Synthetic Fuels
2024
Gunārs Valdmanis

Defending
19.12.2024. 14:00, Rīgas Tehniskās universitātes Dabaszinātņu un tehnoloģiju fakultāte, Āzenes iela 12/1, 607. auditorija

Supervisor
Gatis Bažbauers

Reviewers
Ivars Veidenbergs, Peter David Lund, Alar Konist

Reducing emissions of carbon and other greenhouse substances in the European Union's economy has been one of the most important objectives of the European Union's climate and energy policy. The electricity sector is one of the sectors where overall significant progress has been made in reducing emissions, while the transport sector still accounts for a very significant share of total climate-related emissions, and progress in reducing them is considered relatively modest. The electrification of the transport sector, including by promoting both the development of electric transport and its infrastructure, as well as by promoting the development of so-called sectors and infrastructure for the production of electric fuels, is considered from the point of view of emission reduction and costs as a potentially promising policy for reducing emissions in the sector, however, when planning these steps, it is also necessary to assess the potential challenges that such a development trend poses to the electricity sector, as well as other related economic sectors. Among other things, it is important to identify the necessary costs for the development of electricity production plants and infrastructure, technological challenges for the technical management of the electricity supply system, as well as the interaction of the abovementioned development trends with the operation of the energy market. The doctoral thesis, which is based on a set of thematically related scientific publications of the author of the thesis, provides an extensive and systematic analysis of specific measures in the electricity and transport sector, the purpose of which is to identify the technological and economic interaction of several technological solutions for the decarbonization of the transport sector with the electricity sector and the technological development trends observed in it (primarily – the increase in the share of renewable energy production plants), technological the impact of the options on the overall emissions of the energy and transport sectors, as well as the expected socio-economic costs of these options. When developing the study, it is also taken into account that not only the technological and economic justification of these measures is essential for the implementation of large and complex policy measures, but also significant public support and participation in the implementation of measures, for the provision of which the most important prerequisites are, firstly, demonstrable socio-economic benefits of users at the level of final consumers, as well as the support of the majority of the public for the practical implementation of the planned policy of state administration institutions, which is helped by the institutional capacity of the public administration. The task of the doctoral thesis is to find out by modelling whether the development of transport electrification and electric fuel sectors is technologically and economically justified in the conditions of Latvia, and what is the impact of these development scenarios on the production capacity and market development of the electricity sector, energy and mobility costs of final consumers, as well as on the total amount of emissions, as well as to identify possible technological and political ones, preconditions related to strengthening institutional capacity to ensure the successful implementation of measures to decarbonize transport. Based on the conclusions of the work, it is planned to provide recommendations and for the planning of electricity and transport policies. In connection with the study, the author hypothesizes that policy measures to promote the development of electricity and electric fuels aimed at the transport sector in Latvia are crucial for achieving sustainable climate neutrality. The following research methods have been used in the doctoral thesis: including a system dynamics model, which is based on the Stella Architect's system dynamics tool and which is used primarily to assess the causal relationships and interactions of different policy measures and development trends over time; an energy system modelling tool ("EnergyPlan"), which aims to predict the impact of transport electrification measures on the technological and economic performance of the electricity system; as well as mathematical and statistical analysis, with the help of which calculations have been made of the cost of electromobility per end-user, as well as historical trends in the correlation between renewable energy production volumes and wholesale prices, on the basis of which the expected dynamics of electricity price fluctuations in the future and the influence of additional demand sources on price formation can be predicted. Subsequently, after the introduction, Chapter 1 provides an overview of the issues to be studied, i.e., the prospects for electrification and electric fuels in the Latvian conditions, the possible technological and economic synergies of the electricity and transport sectors, as well as the essential prerequisites for the implementation of the policy for their successful implementation, Chapter 2 describes the methodology that was used in all publications. Chapter 3 presents the results of the research based on the above methodologies, which allow the author to conclude the doctoral thesis with conclusions. The results of the doctoral thesis led to the conclusion that by 2050 it is possible to decarbonize the heavy transport sector by using instantaneous surpluses of renewable electricity to produce synthetic fuels and store them in large volumes, and the storage of synthetic fuels produced from electricity allows to minimize electricity imports. In turn, in the light transport sector, the most promising is the move towards electric transport, which is an achievable goal based on the already predictable development of renewable electricity production by 2050. It can also be concluded that electric charging has a positive effect on network load and return on investment, and fast charging contributes to network optimization - reduction of peak loads.


Keywords
Atjaunojamie energoresursi; transporta dekarbonizācija; elektrifikācija;
DOI
10.7250/9789934371356

Valdmanis, Gunārs. Decarbonisation of Transport through Electrification and Synthetic Fuels. PhD Thesis. Rīga: [RTU], 2024. 231 p.

Publication language
Latvian (lv)
The Scientific Library of the Riga Technical University.
E-mail: uzzinas@rtu.lv; Phone: +371 28399196