Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools

Latvian Journal of Physics and Technical Sciences 2016
Virginijus Radziukynas, Arturas Klementavičius

The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011) and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023).

Atslēgas vārdi
forecasting error, short-term forecasting, system load, wind power, wind speed
DOI
10.1515/lpts-2016-0008
Hipersaite
http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/lpts.2015.53.issue-2/lpts-2016-0008/lpts-2016-0008.xml?format=INT

Radziukynas, V., Klementavičius, A. Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools. Latvian Journal of Physics and Technical Sciences, 2016, Vol.53, Iss.2, 3.-13.lpp. ISSN 0868-8257. Pieejams: doi:10.1515/lpts-2016-0008

Publikācijas valoda
English (en)