Impact of the Government Borrowing Policy on the Long - Term GDP Growth
Smart and Efficient Economy: Preparation for the Future Innovative Economy: 21st International Scientific Conference 2016
Nadežda Semjonova

Purpose of the article The growth of the government debt usually is not steady in time. The government may choose different policies: to borrow more during recession period to compensate for the low GDP growth rate, or borrow during intensive growth to stimulate accumulation of wealth and creation of the “safety cushion” for the future recession. The aim of the present research is to explore how the borrowing policy affects long- term GDP growth. Methodology/methods The research used World Bank statistical data over the period of 2003 – 2012. Time series of GDP and government debt data were analysed to correlate annual debt increment with the GDP growth rate. The value of the correlation coefficient was used to group countries following their borrowing policies. Further, the indicator of long - term GDP growth was analysed for each group. Scientific aim of the paper was 1) to explore borrowing policies of the world countries and 2) to demonstrate, that long – term GDP growth of countries that borrows more in recession, differs from one of countries that borrows in the growth periods. Findings Among 176 world countries, 42 countries’ debt tends to increase more at the periods of weak GDP growth. For 12 countries, the debt grows faster at the periods of intensive economic growth. Other 122 countries does not demonstrated any correlation between GDP growth rate and debt increment rate. On average, the long-term GDP growth appears to be greater in the group of countries that borrows more in the growth period. On the contrary, the average growth rate was lower in the group of countries, borrowing in the recession period. Conclusions Although present research does not answered question in what extend empirical findings corresponds to the documented government debt policies of the world countries, the general tendency may imply, that borrowing in the growth period is more sustainable debt policy, that helps to withstand economic periodicity.


Atslēgas vārdi
government debt, borrowing policy, GDP growth

Semjonova, N. Impact of the Government Borrowing Policy on the Long - Term GDP Growth. No: Smart and Efficient Economy: Preparation for the Future Innovative Economy: 21st International Scientific Conference, Čehija, Brno, 19.-20. maijs, 2016. Brno: Brno University of Technology, 2016, 682.-687.lpp. ISBN 9788021454132.

Publikācijas valoda
English (en)
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