Plausible data that illustrates future trends of waste production dynamics is essential for waste management system development. Optimal decisions regarding technological solutions for waste management or policy instrument application can be made if correct figures regarding the amounts of waste produced are available. This paper presents a study on the elaboration of estimations of municipal waste generation. The study covers the elaboration of a research algorithm, analysis of characteristics of factors that influence dynamics of waste amounts produced, and the elaboration and analysis of potential scenarios. As a result of this research, a prognosis of the waste amounts to be generated in for Latvia for the 2015 – 2020 period is elaborated.