The Economic and Industrial Forecast of Japan 2013-2030 by Revised Model JIDEA9

2018
Yasuhiko Sasai, Mitsuhito Ono, Takeshi Imagawa

23 years have passed since we started the construction of an INFORUM type model JIDEA (Japan Inter-industry Dynamic Econometric Analysis). Year by year, we revised the model following the new I-O table published by the Japanese government. The government changes the base year of the I-O table every five years, then we construct a totally new model, re-organizing the industrial sectors and adding a new mechanism of calculation. The revision of 2016 demands a lot of work as the base year changed from 2005 to 2011 and the sector number increased from 73 to 85. The model is based on observed data using I-O tables from 1995 to 2013. Estimates for future I-O tables from 2014 to 2030 are calculated using regression equations sector by sector. For both the final demand side (household consumption, private investment, exports and imports) and the value added side (wages, profits, depreciations, taxes and subsidies) we estimate each function sector by sector. All these components are summed up to macroeconomic variables. Through this model, input and output of each industry is calculated with perfect consistency, and we can analyze future economic situations from various aspects. In this report, we analyzed how the Japanese economy would develop from 2014 until 2030 based on Japanese historical data from 1995 to 2013 using the JIDEA9 model.

Atslēgas vārdi
multisectoral modelling, applied models, macroeconomy, JIDEA, I-O tables, Japanese economy
DOI
10.7250/9789934221194.005
Hipersaite
https://ebooks.rtu.lv/catalog/ekonomika-un-vadibzinatne/494/

Sasai, Y., Ono, M., Imagawa, T. The Economic and Industrial Forecast of Japan 2013-2030 by Revised Model JIDEA9. No: D.S.Meade, V.Ozoliņa, red. Applied Macroeconomic Multisectoral Modeling. Riga: RTU Press, 2018. 76.-103.lpp. ISBN 978-9934-22-118-7. e-ISBN 978-9934-22-119-4. Pieejams: doi:10.7250/9789934221194.005

Publikācijas valoda
English (en)