Modeling the Influence of Selected Economic Processes on the Long-Term Development of the Polish Economy

2018
Michał Przybyliński, Iwona Świeczewska, Joanna Trębska

Over the past 15 years the Polish economy has experienced strong fluctuations in economic growth. After the slowdown in 2002−2003, Poland’s accession to the European Union contributed to a significant acceleration. However, as a result of the global economic crisis, the dynamics of development slowed down substantially. Yet, it did not lead to such a recession as in other EU countries and in the USA. The Polish economy continued to develop, being the only “green island” among the EU countries. Will this optimistic picture change in the longer term? This paper does not aim at answering this question, but it tries to estimate the potential influence of selected (considered as crucial) processes occurring in the first decades of the 21st century on the perspectives of the further development of the Polish economy. The purpose of the paper is to analyze basic mechanisms and processes that emerged in the Polish economy in the 21st century. Identification of these phenomena through empirical verification is complemented by scenario analyses to quantify their possible impact on Poland’s future economic development. These phenomena and processes are as follows. • Demographic phenomena, including changes in the population size and population structure by age, with particular focus on forecasts for the increase in the number of retirees. The analysis does not take into account migration. • Changes in the intensity and structure of Polish foreign trade related to the deepening of the globalization process, which means the increase of Poland’s involvement in the phenomenon of fragmentation of production processes. • Technological progress and growth of knowledge capital in the economy, which plays an important role in the process of longterm growth. Knowledge capital can be identified with human capital, innovation and the ability to acquire knowledge from abroad. It should be stressed that the intention of the authors was not to create any projection of the most likely development of the Polish economy. If the simulations presented in this paper were to be considered as forecasts, they would certainly be judged as imperfect, and some of them unquestionably unrealistic. The variety of phenomena and processes occurring in the modern world undermines the reasonableness of predicting the future based on the belief that we are able to take into account all, or at least the “most important” factors affecting economic development. The structure of the paper is as follows. First, we present the model. Then the assumptions for three scenarios are given, each of the scenarios concerns the particular phenomena listed above. Results are shown for 4 scenarios; the additional one is a combination of the three. The results are followed by conclusions.

Atslēgas vārdi
multisectoral modelling, applied models, macroeconomy, Polish economy
DOI
10.7250/9789934221194.006
Hipersaite
https://ebooks.rtu.lv/catalog/ekonomika-un-vadibzinatne/494/

Przybyliński, M., Świeczewska, I., Trębska, J. Modeling the Influence of Selected Economic Processes on the Long-Term Development of the Polish Economy. No: D.S.Meade, V.Ozoliņa, red. Applied Macroeconomic Multisectoral Modeling. Riga: RTU Press, 2018. 104.-119.lpp. ISBN 978-9934-22-118-7. e-ISBN 978-9934-22-119-4. Pieejams: doi:10.7250/9789934221194.006

Publikācijas valoda
English (en)