Re-Evaluation of World Population Figures: Politics and Forecasting Mechanics

2020
Olatunji Abdul Shobande, Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe

This paper forecasts the world population using the Autoregressive Integration Moving Average (ARIMA) for estimation and projection for short-range and long-term population sizes of the world, regions and sub-regions. The study provides evidence that growth and population explosion will continue in Sub-Saharan Africa, tending the need to aggressively promote pragmatic programmes that will balance population growth and sustainable economic growth in the region. The study argued that early projections took for granted the positive and negative implications of population growth on the social structure and offset the natural process, which might have implication(s) on survival rate. Given the obvious imbalance in population growth across continents and regions of the world, a more purposeful inter-regional and economic co-operation that supports and enhances population balancing and economic expansion among nations is highly recommended. In this regard, the United Nations should compel member states to vigorously and effectively implement domestic and international support programmes with this objective in view.

Atslēgas vārdi
ARMA/ARIMA; Population growth; Population projections; World population; J11; J18; C22
DOI
10.2478/eb-2020-0008
Hipersaite
https://content.sciendo.com/view/journals/eb/34/1/article-p104.xml

Shobande, O., Shodipe, O. Re-Evaluation of World Population Figures: Politics and Forecasting Mechanics. Economics and Business, 2020, Vol. 34, 104.-125. lpp. e-ISSN 2256-0394. Pieejams: doi:10.2478/eb-2020-0008

Publikācijas valoda
English (en)