The Natural Rate of Interest: Information Derived from a Shadow Rate Model
Applied Economics 2020
Viktors Ajevskis

The study proposes an estimation method of the natural rate of interest based on the shadow rate term structure of interest rates model and using information from nominal yields data. For the purpose of comparison and robustness check, different samples for the estimation of the natural rate of interest – three for the euro area and two for the US – are considered. The estimates based on all considered samples show a downturn trend in the estimated natural rates of interest for the euro area. However, since the beginning of 2013, this downward trend has levelled off. Compared to the results obtained by affine models, the shadow rate model produces lower estimates of the natural rates of interest. In order to demonstrate the use of the natural rate of interest, we employ the estimated series of the natural rate of interest in the balance-approach version of the Taylor rule. The results imply that, at the end of the sample in July 2017, Taylor rule-suggested policy rates were in line with the actual ECB policy rates


Atslēgas vārdi
Natural rate of interest, term structure of interest rates, lower bound, non-linear Kalman filter, shadow rate
DOI
10.1080/00036846.2020.1757029
Hipersaite
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00036846.2020.1757029

Ajevskis, V. The Natural Rate of Interest: Information Derived from a Shadow Rate Model. Applied Economics, 2020, Vol. 52, No. 47, 5129.-5138.lpp. ISSN 0003-6846. e-ISSN 1466-4283. Pieejams: doi:10.1080/00036846.2020.1757029

Publikācijas valoda
English (en)
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