As a result of economic development in the past 20 years a geographical mobility and new settlement patterns in Latvia have occurred – wealthier people look for living space outside the big cities – in suburban areas and in closer rural territories. Houses and roads are built, more children are born. It has led to fundamental changes in society structure and lifestyle as well as caused growing demand for higher quality education in the suburban rural territories. In Latvia there are no models for evaluating the impact of school or municipality decisions or activities on the number of pupils in schools. To address the problem demographic and geographical migration processes in Riga region have been studied as well as theoretical aspects of decision making and the factors affecting parents’ decisions before selecting the school. The result of the research is developed theoretical and simulation model for analysing different factor impact on number of pupils in the school. The simulation model built during the research can be used as a supporting tool for decision-making process in any public or private educational establishment. The model can also be used to analyse business decisions’ impact on the results.